Economy
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Fannie, Freddie, Centralization and the Cost of Messing with Markets
Did you have the same reaction I did when you heard the news about the latest tremor in the financial markets, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are responsible for half
the mortgages in America? Talk about putting all your eggs in one
basket. And now the government is in a position to likely have to bail
these two behemouths out. Talk about the Devil and the Deep Blue
Sea. Either mortage rates spike and housing values crash (no bail out)
or the dollar does another free fall (bail out with government debt).
(And there are no guarantees that both worst-case outcomes won't occur
anyway.) So how did we get into this mess?
The
answer is simple. It is the same answer to the same question, fill in
the blank for your particular "mess" of the day/week/year/decade. Big government, centralized power, meddling in the markets. The
over-reaching of government is a domino effect. It is an evolutionary
process. And it is fed by the citizenry who know not what they do, when
the outcry comes for guarantees and bail outs and "one time
interventions."
Lets start with the relationship between free markets and Liberty. Free
markets are the infrastructure of Liberty. Free markets allow the
complete free and unfettered exchange of goods and services to flow
between buyer and seller, provider and recipient. When markets are
completely free of interference, regulation, or manipulation, the real
price of virtually any good or service emerges very quickly in the
dynamics of commerce. One could define the dynamics of commerce as the
constant interaction of supply, demand, quality, and capital. These
four dynamics are in constant interplay making prices rise or fall or
stabilize. If Company A provides a service of great quality for which
there is low demand, the service is still very inexpensive. If the
price goes low enough to interest those who would not otherwise
consider purchasing it, suddenly the quality and value of the service
or product is discovred by those who have purchased it, word spreads
and the price adjusts higher. Eventually the product or service is so
well known and appreciated that demand exceeds supply and the price
adjusts dramatically higher. The markets have done their job.
The markets have done their job because the product really is
of high quality and high value. Its value was not recognized when it
was introduced to the market, but downward pressure on price due to low
demand eventually made the value of the product apparent and sales
began to pick up. At some point, however, the price for the product or
service becomes so expensive that price exceeds quality and the real
value relative to price begins to decrease. In most cases the markets
would again do their job sales would begin to fall until there is an
over-supply, causing prices to adjust downward. Once the product, no
much better known and appreciated by the public, is reasonably priced
again, sales would increase again, supplies would tighten and at least
for a moment, the sweet spot in which supply, demand, quality and price
are all in alignment and the true value, the correct price, of the
product or service would occur.
Such a sweet
spot may be more theoretical than real and may exist in real time on
rare occasions, however the sweet spot is the economic center of
gravity that moves markets. It is gravity that makes high prices fall,
and bouyancy that makes low prices rise. As we know all too well there
are other forces that influence markets besides these four dynamics,
that skew prices and cause bubbles. Trends create artificial demand for
products and services that is not sustainable long term, but due to
herd mentality and fashion hysteria, bubbles can demonstrate more
elasticity that anyone could have predicted for longer than anyone
could have imagined, but eventually all bubbles burst, and then markets adjust.
There is more trauma in a bursting bubble than a normal market adjustment, but if left to themselves, markets always adjust. Markets are living beings, not in the physical sense, but in every other sense. Like physical bodies, they heal themselves. When
ruptured, they scab over. When dealt a blow, they stagger, faint, fall,
but eventually rise up again. They are like rivers. Sometimes they
overflow their banks, sometimes they hit obstacles and change course,
sometimes they run dry, but with the next rain comes a new stream, its
current accelerating, gaining momentum, and its browning banks green-up
again.
Such is the natural life of free markets. But what happens when dynamics are manipulated or constrained?
Well, what happens when rivers are dammed? What happens when physical
bodies are bound, or pushed beyond their capacity to keep up? The same
thing happens to markets and thus to economies.
What is the economy? One could say the economy is the state of the markets. If
markets are healthy and free, the economy is also healthy. There will
be booms and busts in markets but without interference some aspects of
the markets will be in boom mode while others are in bust. There will
be bubbles and corrections concurrently and continuously. A healthy
economy doesn't mean everything is rosey but it does mean everything is
working as it shoud and everything willwork out in the long run. The
problem comes when people confuse booms and bubbles with a good economy
and therefore panic when bubbles burst and booms go bust as they should
and as they will.
Returning to the stream or
river analogy,what would happen if people became obsessed with keeping
rivers at the same level all the time. If the river gets too low, an
entire infrastructure would have to be built to pump water into the
river. If the river gets too high, another elaborate infrastructure
would have to be created to pump excess water out. The more water
sought, the further away its source, the more costly it would become,
the more taxing on every aspect of the community to maintain the status
quo, and the more precarious a society would be, depending on this
artificial system. A society would become so obsessed with keeping the
river level constant, that little else would get done. More and more
resources would be drained from the economy to manage water, more and
more time and expertise would be sucked up by the requirements of the
water management infrastructure, and over time, such a system would be
increasingly unsustainable.
Hopefully the
analogies are transparent. Government involvement in loan guarantees,
price stabilization, the flow of currency, become increasingly costly,
unwieldy, risky, and difficult to maintain, meanwhile drawing more and
more vitality from the markets and thus, also, the economy. And that is
exactly the situation we find ourselves in now.
In addition to meddling in markets,
over-centralization of power, over-concentration of capital is
dangerous and unnatural. In fact just as the human body can be too fat
to be healthy and efficient, so can any government, organization,
corporation, or monetary system. The old addage about eggs and baskets
continues to ring true, and we ignore it at our peril. Just as an
individual's investment allocations are best managed by
diversification, a company, a society, a nation, a government-- u name
it, always functions better, safer, and more efficiently when risk is
spread out, when capital is widely distributed and when control is
shared broadly. Another old addage about the correlation between size
and impact on the occasion of a fall says everything we need to know
about what has brought us to this intersection between the rock and the
hard place.
But now that we're here, how do we fix it? For
that answer, a lesson from the addictions treatment protocol. Cold
turkey. Abrupt change. Ride out the withdrawal symptoms. Endure the
convulsions. Prepare to live free of your drug of choice. Emphasis on
the word free.
That is why most Libertarians favor some or all of the following policies, positions, programs and structures to foster healthy free markets, a healthy economy, and decentralization of power:
Shrink government to the bare minimum in size, scope, power, and authority.
Decentralize governmental operations.
Diffuse concentration of capital.
- Maintain
absolute freedom of markets including an end to all regulation,
manipulation, taxation, licensing, subsidies, guarantees, mandates, etc.
End government monopoly on currency, allow competing currencies.
For a more comprehensive look at what a Libertarian program would look like and why it would work, see the Howell Program and the Grow Platform at our Library.
-jwh-
More on the Economy: Why Losing Your Job Might be the Best Thing that Ever Happened to You.
See Mary Ruwart's
comments on this topic.
For a more detailed and technical article about Fannie and Freddie see Michigan Congressional Candidate Daniel Grow's position paper on this topic.